Global trade grew by $2.5 trillion in 2025, increasing by about 7.5% to a record of $35 trillion
- Trade in goods drove most of the expansion, growing by about 7% and adding roughly $1.8 trillion to global growth.
- Trade in services grew by around 8%, contributing about $700 billion to the total increase.
Momentum carries into 2026, but risks are rising
The strong trade growth of 2025 appears to have carried into early 2026. Preliminary data from major economies and key indicators point to continued expansion in goods trade – though signs of a slowdown in services are emerging.
However, this positive trend remains fragile. Global trade growth is expected to slow later in 2026, weighed down by persistent trade tensions and rising trade costs.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to intensify inflationary pressures on an already strained global economy facing geopolitical tensions, policy shifts and limited fiscal space – the room governments have to increase spending or cut taxes.