Global trade in goods and services continued to grow through the second half of 2025. If projections hold, global trade this year will exceed $35 trillion for the first time – an increase of about $2.2 trillion, or around 7%, compared with 2024.
Trade in goods will account for about $1.5 trillion of that rise, while services are set to grow by roughly $750 billion, nearly 9%.
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expects growth to remain positive in the fourth quarter, though at a slower pace: 0.5% for goods and 2% for services.
Earlier increases were partly driven by higher prices. But after rising for two consecutive quarters, the prices of trade goods are expected to decline in the fourth quarter – meaning volumes, not prices, will drive trade growth toward the end of the year.
Looking ahead, momentum is expected to weaken in 2026. Slower global growth, rising debt, higher trade costs and continued uncertainty are likely to weigh on trade flows.
Explore UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)‘s year-end Global Trade Update here.
Read also the data story here.